Looking Through a Dark Glass - Old models rethought, New playing field

 

Photo by Barbara Platek

I have waited to write another blog on the economy because things have been slowing down a bit lately. Slowing down is a relative term of course. Financial news and gurus would like nothing better than to have massive activity or perceived activity to generate something to write about. It doesn’t matter what point they argue just that they can argue. I have found three articles discussing topics that I think may be interesting and possibly somewhat informative.

The first two articles are from the Financial Times and CNBC, written in mid and late December. I like them because someone is asking about how successful the various central banks have been in predicting and handling the most recent recession and interest rate crisis. They have not been particularly successful in either predicting or dealing with the crisis. The article is pretty good about pointing out a couple of good thoughts. However, the central banks only admit that they applied the wrong thinking to the problem. They now know where they went wrong (or so they say) and the problem won’t happen again. Don’t believe them. They haven’t got it right this time. We will continue to have crisis and they will continue to make the wrong corrections.

Central bankers are rethinking their approach to economic forecasting after their high-profile failures to spot the most recent inflationary outburst, as officials argue for greater candour with the markets about the uncertainties they are confronting. … “What we should have learned is that we cannot just rely only on textbook cases and pure models. We have to think with a broader horizon,” she said. (Christine Lagarde) (a)

The second article discusses the difficult nature of forecasting. If only the world were linear or bell curve shaped or predictable our models would have performed just fine. But because the world is unpredictable (who would have thought) we (the economists and central bankers) can’t be expected to be able to make accurate forecasts. So we will continue to use the old models with a few adjustments and expect the world to get in line and be linear or bell curve shaped. Because if it does conform to our view of the world then, of course, our models will get it right. Their models will not get it right, trust me on this.

Firstly, a “multi-polar world” and an “increasingly fragmented global order” are leading to the “end of hyper-globalization,” Little said. Secondly, fiscal policy will continue to be more active, fueled by shifting political priorities in the “age of populism”, environmental concerns and high levels in inequality.  Thirdly, economic policy is increasingly geared towards climate change and the transition to net zero carbon emissions. [More so in Europe but the Biden administration is determined to drag the US into the morass of massive spending, extreme regulation and ill-thought out initiatives.]

“Against this backdrop, we anticipate greater supply side volatility, structurally higher inflation and higher for longer interest rates.” Little said. “Meanwhile economic downturns are likely to become more frequent as higher inflation restricts the ability of central bands to stimulate economies.” (b)

 

New interest rate & inflation thinking

I like the below quoted Reuters article from early January. There is still a lot of sentiment that the Fed will be successful in a soft landing. You will notice that this discussion has been going on since early 2022 with an ever changing end date. The discussion of the recession, regardless if it crashes or is in fact a “soft landing” makes for good press so as long as it is never resolved there is good storytelling. Expect to see much discussion even after it is finally decided we are either in recession or had a soft landing

 “[A] well-known economist and former Fed official earlier this year argued the Fed has managed soft landings more often than is generally believed. But many investors and executives think the probability is low [for a soft landing at this point].

Investors are betting that the Fed could cut rates by as much as 1.5% by the end of 2024, but that would still leave policy rates at close to 4%, higher than where it has been for most of the past two decades. At that level, monetary policy will still be a drag on growth, as it would be above the so-called neutral rate at which the economy neither expands nor contracts.” (c)

What does this mean for you and me? More uncertainty and higher interest rates for quite some time and the likelihood of rollercoaster inflation and less inflation. For the last 30 years we have had it fairly nice. The central banks kept interest rates artificially low by pumping massive amount of money into world economies. We all benefited from cheap money. We are now, finally paying the price because the banks can’t kick the can down the road anymore. There was so much excess money (the central banks have actually been reducing their balance sheets some recently) that the whole world system began to collapse. That was when the world banks finally panicked and slowed the river of money. That is the catalyst for the current recession (starting in early 2022) and why it is still hanging on. Most previous recessions lasted from 4 to 10 months at the longest. We are still drying out from our massive, massive binge and it is being slowly done. So expect to see recession / inflation talk to continue (remember it makes for good press). See excerpts from the Reuters article below to see a pretty good discussion of what can and may very well happen and why.

“Interest rates underpin everything, from economic growth to the price of financial assets and how much it costs to borrow to buy a car or a house.

Higher rates make riskier assets, such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive, as investors can earn a decent return without having to take on much risk.

With money harder to come by, riskier bets can fail and bubbles burst, leading to events such as the U.S. regional banking crisis last March. As businesses struggle, they retrench. People lose jobs and new ones get scarce.”

“While the Fed and other banks have been raising rates for well over a year, the world is yet to complete the transition from the time when money was free to a period when it no longer is. 2024 is likely to be the year when the effects of that transition manifest more clearly.

That means companies – and in some cases, entire countries -- will have to restructure their debt liabilities, as they can no longer afford to pay interest.

For consumers, while savings would yield more, higher borrowing costs will require an adjustment. Many U.S. adults have only known low interest rates for their 30-year mortgages, for example. They'd need to come to terms with rates that are more than twice as high and make the math work for their budgets.

Bottom line: investors' convictions will likely get tested, as everyone will have to figure out how to live with higher interest rates.” (c)

So, hang in there. Us old timers (me included and my generation) lived through this kind of uncertainty and massive upheaval in the 70’s and 80’s. We survived. We had to be more frugal and things cost more including anything that required borrowing or debt. Because the costs were higher we had to scale back on our expectations and it did impact our ability to spend and save. When we came out of that time period the world governments opened the money spigots to keep inflation low because they were so afraid of inflation that they would do anything to avoid it again. It appeared to work for 30+ years. Now it doesn’t work and you (the younger generations) are paying the price as are we. My generation went from tight money to loose money and we loved it. This younger generation is going from loose money to tight money and it is painful and will be so for a while. Good luck. Remember what is important and it isn’t easy money. It’s family, friends, neighbors and your spiritual wellbeing. Not what the world would have you believe.

Articles quoted:

‘(a) Financial Times, “Central banks rethink forecasting after failures on inflation”

Sam Fleming in London, Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and Colby Smith in Washington 

December 27 2023  https://www.ft.com/content/5d7851f3-ef7c-4599-8a5c-c34cecb83511

‘(b) CNBC ‘Bonds are back’ as markets enter a ‘new paradigm,’ says HSBC Asset Management

Published Thu, Dec 14 2023 2:45 am EST  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/14/bonds-are-back-as-markets-face-new-paradigm-hsbc-asset-management.html

‘(c) REUTERS, “For investors, 2024 is year of transition to a new economic order”, By Paritosh Bansal, January 2, 202410:07 am MST  https://www.reuters.com/markets/investors-2024-is-year-transition-new-economic-order-2024-01-02/

The Year of More of the Same

  

        I have two pieces of information before me on my desk. One is from Winters & Co. Advisors, LLC, an investment agent who I have worked with over the years. The Winters document contains a chart showing the swap yield curve for the last 4 years based on today’s date (swap rates tend to closely follow same maturity treasuries). The most recent 2 years shows an inverted yield curve in the 4% to 6% range. The curves for 2020 and 2021 show normal sloping curves in the range of 0% to 1.95%. The second document is a short story from the Wall Street Journal of today with the headline, “As inflation cools, economists see soft landing for US”. What a ride we have had for the last two plus years. We have been riding the Fed induced rollercoaster since mid-2021 when inflation started its climb from the benchmark of 2% (4.2% - Apr 2021) to its high of 9.1% in June of 2022. It slowly trended downward through the balance of 2022 and finally was back down to 3% in June of this year. The rate trended up to 3.7% through September and is 3.2% for October according to US inflation Calculator (usinflationcalculatior.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/). Remember, the Fed moved the goal posts last year when it said that they would be happy if long term inflation would stay in the 3.0% range as opposed to its 30 year target range of 2.0%. The Wall Street article states “Economists continue to see the US economy approaching a soft landing as inflation data comes in better than expected, with little signs of impending recession. This would mark the first time in 80 years the Federal Reserve has brought down inflation without triggering a recession.” Not bad if it does happen, i.e. no recession triggered. However, the Fed doesn’t have a very good track record and they did move the goal posts to make it easier to claim success. So, change the rules, take 2 ½ years to do something that many times (one can’t say normally in economic situations) takes 6 to 8 months and declare victory at the new levels, maybe. I see that the Wall Street group is the first on the soft landing band wagon in this current time period. Do you remember the movie Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines (1965 comedy). It goes on to say something like, they go uppity up up, they go downdity down down. I am afraid we have been doing the up down routine along the bottom of the economic landscape for the last 2 ½ years.

      No, we haven’t had an official recession yet but we haven’t had much growth in the economy either. We have a very high Federal Fund rate that looks to stay high for some time to come according to Chairman Powell. In the Associated Press article of November 1, 2023, “Federal Reserve leaves its key rate unchanged but keeps open possibility of a future hike” I quote;

The central bank’s latest statement noted that the economy “expanded at a strong pace” in the July-September quarter and that job gains “remain strong.” And it reiterated that future rate hikes, if the Fed finds them necessary, remain under consideration.

But it also acknowledged that recent tumult in the financial markets has sent interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes to near 16-year highs and contributed to higher loan rates across the economy — a trend that helps serve the Fed’s goal of cooling the economy and inflation pressures.

Powell himself suggested that Fed officials remain unsure about whether further rate increases might still be needed to defeat inflation. That stance marks a shift from earlier this year, when the policymakers had made clear that they leaned toward pushing rates higher.

I am curious to see if the Fed will consider inflation beaten at a 2% rate or the newer Fed suggested 3% rate. It sounds like the Fed is watching and ready to hike the Fed Funds rate more if necessary. Not a strong sign of reduced volatility as the higher rate tends to make other aspects of the economy volatile and unpredictable. The good news is the Fed hasn’t forgotten about the huge balance sheet problem which is and was one of the primary driving forces for the inflation explosion in the first place. Remember the huge balance sheet was fueled by artificially low borrowing rates for so very, very long. In a Reuters article of October 31, 2023 I again quote;

The eventual end of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce its vast bond holdings increasingly appears tied to what happens with the central bank's "reverse repo" operations.

The program, launched nearly a decade ago, grew rapidly starting in the spring of 2021 and by June 2022 was consistently taking in more than $2 trillion a day in what was seen as clear evidence of the amount of excess cash sloshing around the financial system. Inflows have dropped sharply in recent months to around $1 trillion in the face of the Fed's aggressive policy tightening underway since last year.

Lou Crandall, chief economist with Wrightson ICAP, a research firm …  reckons the Fed still has time in this process, and speaking earlier this month, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester agreed.

"We still have a very large balance sheet" so the balance sheet cuts can likely continue over the next year and half to two years, she said, adding when it comes to getting to the finish line, "it's going to take a while."

    So, what might we see regarding inflation, economic growth, and a return to normal (whatever normal may be 😊)? Well, that’s just it. I suspect more of the same which is a fair amount of uncertainty and ambiguity plus a large dose of prevarication by the various economic gurus, and financial and governmental leaders. I am afraid we aren’t going to know until we know. Or at the very earliest after the fact (yup, after the fact). Not much comfort. However what you can do is stay conservative in your investments. Don’t concentrate your holdings but spread things out. Don’t go for financial or investing fads. Save as you can, spend less, and find ways to enjoy things more like family, friends, the beauties around us. Don’t worry to much about the economy. It has survived several other difficult times regardless of what people, institutions and governments do to it. Things will of course certainly, almost without fail, very likely, probably, in most cases solve themselves, we think. (But don’t quote us on that.)

Articles cited.

Federal Reserve leaves its key rate unchanged but keeps open possibility of a future hike

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-prices-economy-federal-reserve-63f5a7ed041d6b55c7aa773d071a05fb

Fed’s reverse repo facility drawdown looms large in balance sheet debate

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-reverse-repo-facility-drawdown-looms-large-balance-sheet-debate-2023-10-31/

Recession, Banks, Debt Ceiling – You Must Believe Me Now

The question is, if it’s said loud enough will it be believed? Because this time it really is true (it is being said very loudly). Or is it?

The discussion about recession has been on-going for some time now. I started writing about recession possibilities over a year ago. The discussion has moved back and forth between how do we avoid one to how do we get a soft landing to what can we do to help those that will likely suffer if the landing isn’t so soft. We may see in the next several months various pronouncements by various talking heads. You notice I didn’t say anything about what phase this is. I don’t know and it doesn’t matter as much as most news personnel would like you to believe from their  strident and every increasing noise. Remember, it is important to keep the fans whipped up. We will be able to look back in several months when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will state that a recession started at such and such a point, or didn’t. Remember, only the Bureau is recognized as the official group that can declare such and they always include factors that are backward looking, meaning we don’t officially know until after the fact. This also means that we don’t officially know if we have had a soft landing, missed recession or face plant until after the fact either. There are other signs that may give us indications of various outcomes, however. We have been moving toward this point for months and months. It is dragging on longer than a normal news cycle so it gets recycled regularly. Expect to see it to continue. Again, the fans need to be whipped up to keep enthusiasm high. We are getting more comments like JPMorgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon (CNBC, Apr 14, 2023 Manie Dimon issues warning on rates: ‘It will undress problems in the economy’) that investors and business should plan on interest rates remaining higher for longer. The Fed still needs to “dry out” the economy, get the excess funds (easy money) out of the system. That hasn’t changed. We still have a recession we are trying to work around or work through depending on what you think may happen. Work around implies a soft landing or just a slowdown; The economy slows down, unemployment rises a bit. Banks tighten their lending policies. A few business and individuals suffer or go under. The Fed is able to get their balance sheet down without the stock and bond market tanking (it slows down, drops and recovers fairly quickly). We stumble a bit and slow down. No or mild recession and we carry on at a more measured pace. Work through implies a recession; we trip or worse, face plant and have to pick ourselves back up. We see bank failures, businesses and individuals declare bankruptcy. The Fed isn’t able to maintain a smooth decrease in its balance sheet or worse doesn’t reduce it. The stock and bond market react to all the uncertainty and failures by tanking. It takes a longer to climb out of the hole.

One of the consequences of the higher rates is the financial sector including banks will feel the pinch. They have to change from an easy money mentality to a more measured lending stance. Easy money implies less diligence in protecting deposits and in shoring up a banks balance sheet. There is little or no profit in protecting deposits (lending them out is where money is made) or doing more than the minimum required or skirting regulations. Most banks try to balance the profits with the safety, we have seen the banks that didn’t. The price for skirting the safety regs in good times is minimal and it is hard to see which banks may be skirting until too late when times turn bad. The best we can do is go with financial institutions with a long record of being conservative. Credit Unions tend to be more conservative by their nature and charter requirements. Still, it’s hard to tell. There is something to be said for spreading money around between institutions. We also have deposit insurance which is helpful but in the Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank failures the Fed stepped in and guaranteed all deposits which stressed the insurance provider FDIC (it almost broke it such that another big hit would cause serious problems). So, things are complicated, of course. By guaranteeing all deposit they essentially gave a green light to the poor practices of the bank. They also prevented a bank run on several similar shaky banks across the country. Whether that was the right thing to do or not should be debated for a long time. The current mentality is that the government can fix everything which makes them responsible. Hence more regulation and laws and more places for shady people to find loopholes. Notice that the defense for many of these funny practices is that the entity did nothing wrong, they were following the rules. It was the rules fault. So, of course, more rules are needed. That is a very bad spiral and you can follow it down to the final conclusion. Watch the financial sector for more stress in general and how they seem to take care of it. Look for more rules and regulations. I am glad I am finishing up my career in finance and not starting it. It is a very different and much more difficult place to work then 30-35 years ago when I was first involved.

                Now the debt ceiling question. I am not going to quote any articles. There have been so many. It is the current hot, hot, hot topic button and the news media are mashing it with their biggest and most massive sledge hammers (gleefully I might add). Do you feel like you have been beat up no, pummeled for weeks on end. Everywhere you turn someone or some organization is talking dire straits, doom, gloom, death, destruction, mayhem, the very end of the world as we know it, the end of civilization, the death of all we hold near and dear, (pause for dramatic breath!!!!!!) AURRRGHHHHHHHH. Why can’t you people see how important this is!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry…., I got just a little bit carried away.

It won’t happen again (at least until tomorrow anyway.)

                This is the news and financial media at its finest. This it the current news media model and the debt ceiling is the ultimate opportunity to exercise its model to the fullest. The underlying question is the government has set some limits on its spending capability, a good thing. It has come around again that the government can’t manage its input and output. The easy solution is raise the debt ceiling or remove the debt ceiling requirement or better yet get spending under control. Now, granted, the answer is never that easy and that is also part of the problem. The solution is pretty complex but workable. However, we have powerful political forces that are using this debt ceiling to push their various points and agendas.  

As background information. The following is from Wikepedia, United States debt Ceiling;

The U.S. has never reached the point of default where the Treasury was incapable of paying U.S. debt obligations, though it has been close on several occasions. The only exception was during the War of 1812 when parts of Washington D.C. including the Treasury were burned.

In 2011, the U.S. reached a crisis point of near default on public debt. The delay in raising the debt ceiling resulted in the first downgrade in the United States credit rating, a sharp drop in the stock market, and an increase in borrowing costs. Congress raised the debt limit with the Budget Control Act of 2011, which added to the fiscal cliff when the new ceiling was reached on December 31, 2012.

The last time things got too close, government set new rules and they immediately went about figuring out where the loopholes are. And it is continuing. Is it a problem. Yes. Is it the end of things as we know them (as the news is telling us). No. Are there solutions. Yes. Should you be upset. Yes. Should we be acting like Chicken Little. No. It will play out. It will get close. There will be much rejoicing in the media when the “solution” is reached. Then the media will begin the analysis phase which will allow for continued coverage for many months. So it continues. Should you follow all the stories. DEFINATELY NOT. When this crisis passes the media will need something else to keep us tied to them. Look for the recession to come back in vogue. Don’t be lead around. The various financial crisis will continue in the news. You can always find them if you want. I suggest you don’t want to. Keep your finances simple. Keep debt low. Save as you can. Debt is good for some things, housing, education, transportation. Live simply.

                Remember what is important. It isn’t news. It is family, friends, the things you love. It is the beauties around you. It is relationships, the good earth, the joy of interacting. It is game nights, movies together, playing with kids (big and little ones). It is in quite walks, talking in person to friends and family. Meeting new people, a meal together, building something, watching a sunrise and sunset. Tell someone you love them. Share precious things, a hug a kind word, hope.

The Sword of Damocles - Recession Discussion & Related Thoughts

Sword of Damocles
by Richard Westall

            We start the new year with the sword of Damocles poised over the national and world financial markets. The articles are a smattering of comments, commentary and conjecture from market gurus (both national and world) and federal officials tasked with knowing what is going on. Much of the thinking is still relating to recession but a new term is being introduced into the discussion. Additionally, many are discussing just what and when a recession may or may not occur and Powell (Fed Chairman) is trying to keep the Fed focused on is core responsibility. A typical month in the life of the financial world with many pronouncements, much hand wringing and many loud protestations. So, let’s dive into the murky waters and see just what we can see (or not see).

                A new term is being floated to describe the current financial situation, “slowcession”. Apparently the phrase was coined by Cristian deRitis and used by Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. It means economic growth “comes to a near standstill but never slips into reverse [recession].” Every economic downturn and upturn for that matter, is a bit different and past historical data can only give limited help in describing any current situation. We won’t know how this recession or as noted above, slowcession, will look until after the fact. It will probably have several differing characteristics from previous recessions but will meet the basic definition of recession. Do we know how this recession will play out, no. Are there some ideas, yes, many. Will any of the ideas be correct. Maybe. Then again they may all be wrong or at least mostly wrong. Then again, with all the possible ideas and conjectures floated over the past 12 months there is likely to be a couple of the ideas that will hit close to what actually happens. Remember, we have had so many possible scenarios described from the death of the markets to no recession that all possible options have at least been considered. Something has to hit, given enough shots taken. So, we don’t really know but we have some ideas on a recession and its impacts.

                The Guardian (London) collected comments from a variety of international economists and financial gurus and gives us a cross-section of thinking. They suggest from their sources that we should “brace for another turbulent year in the financial markets”. (Nothing new there.) Their comments suggest possible improvement and likely fall of markets, particularly the US. The head of the International Monetary Fund suggests that a third of the world’s economies are in recession which is likely “because the three big economies – US, EU and China – are all slowing down simultaneously”. Some are suggesting a global recession this year. Much of the speculation is based on what economists and other believe will be the response by central banks to the high inflation rate, which will be raising governmental monies interest rates. An interesting side comment, the article suggests that Russia’s economy is already in recession caused in large part by Putin’s failure to find an easy way out of the war.

                I have selected 3 articles on recession comments. The Bond Buyer (1/24/23) brings several analysts’ comments together suggesting recession is necessary. Some economists are suggesting a modest recession (Wells Fargo Securities and others) during 2023, others think more than modest. There is now discussion about the impact of the recession on inflation. Remember, recessions are supposed to kill inflation. Some are suggesting inflation will remain above the Fed target of 2.0% and be in the range of 2.5% to 3.5% for at least a decade. The solution to higher than target rates, the Fed can always move its target upward and declare victory in the war on inflation. That wouldn’t surprise me. Finally, there is some discussion that we will have a split year. Good for half and bad for half. Don’t know which half first. BNN Bloomberg (1/5/23) is a discussion by St. Louis Fed Reserve Bank President James Bullard that Fed Funds Rates are getting closer to high enough to bring down inflation. The thought by many from his comment is that the Fed still has some increases to come. The question is will they be .25% or .50% increases. The market views a slowing increase as positive at this point. Several Fed officials are still concerned that inflation is to high or way to high. That points to bigger increases. The 3^rd article from Reuters (1/25/23) is about the impact of all this to investors. The article warns that many “heavyweights [are] warn[ing] of pain ahead despite market’s recent reprieve”. Even though recent market movements have been positive or optimistic, most are warning that recession is still likely. The article states, “correctly gauging the economy is crucial for investors”. The statement is absolutely correct and impossible to do. Remember that. Don’t try. No one can. Ever. Don’t do it. In spite of what many say especially talk radio financial hosts and slick financial advisors. And of course many believe they know more. Some very few will get very lucky and be correct and you will hear about them and their phenomenal good skills (luck is not a skill). The majority (most) will get it wrong and there will never be any report on them or their numbers.

                Stay your course. Don’t panic or as the British war message stated “Keep Calm and Carry On”. Keep your debts manageable / low. Don’t borrow without careful thought. Save and above all….. enjoy life, friends, family and the beauties around us. Be grateful. I am.

Articles used:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/02/global-economic-forecast-for-2023-a-stormy-start-followed-by-a-ray-of-hope

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/economy/moodys-us-economy-slowcession/index.html

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-s-bullard-says-rates-are-getting-closer-to-sufficiently-high-1.1866262

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-heavyweights-warn-against-goldilocks-hopes-2023-01-25/